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Prediction for CME (2014-06-10T13:09:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-06-10T13:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5733/-1 CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-06-15T12:24Z (-28.0h, +31.5h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 7.0 Prediction Method: COMESEP Prediction Method Note: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR has issued the following GeomagneticStorm alert with impact risk evaluated as medium. Details on the above alert can be found hereafter. Best Regards, COMESEP Alert system. === COMESEP Alert Identity === 20140610194902.3IbMUBNff1@cmegeomagneticforecasttool === Comesep Alert Info === Alert id: 20140610194902.3IbMUBNff1@cmegeomagneticforecasttool Status:normal AlertIdAction: new Emitter: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR Emitter HRef: http://www.comesep.eu Emitter Version: 1.0 Subject: The risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is MEDIUM following the observation of a CME that erupted at 12:48 on 2014-06-10 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: VERY UNLIKELY 2) storm level: STRONG SubjectTopic: GeomagneticStorm === Comesep Alert Target === Target: Sun ReceivedAt: 10-06-2014 19:49 AtEarliest: 14-06-2014 08:35 AtStrongest: 15-06-2014 12:24 AtLatest: 17-06-2014 20:05 === Comesep Alert Impact 1 === ImpactType: Geomagnetic Severity: Strong Probability: Very_unlikely Confidence: 0.3 === Comesep Alert Details === === Comesep Alert Parent-Child Hierarchy === Root Alert 1 is SolarFlare produced by solardemon received at 10-06-2014 12:09 has id 20140610120901.aNvPrBdFhF.2408@solardemon_flares Root Alert 2 is SolarFlare produced by flaremail received at 10-06-2014 12:19 has id 20140610121902.K01Hstbzrt@flaremail Child Alert 3 is SEP produced by sepforecast received at 10-06-2014 12:49 has id 20140610_122002_86a1335119@SEPForecast.oma.be Parent of child alert 3 is alert 2 Parent of child alert 3 is alert 1 Root Alert 4 is CME produced by cactus received at 10-06-2014 19:46 has id 201406101946.eIjQ0iida0LUq9@titus.oma.be Child Alert 5 is CME produced by dbm received at 10-06-2014 19:46 has id 22422.1402429581@oh.geof.unizg.hr Parent of child alert 5 is alert 4 Child Alert 6 is GeomagneticStorm produced by cgft received at 10-06-2014 19:49 has id 20140610194902.3IbMUBNff1@cmegeomagneticforecasttool (is current alert) Parent of child alert 6 is alert 4 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 5 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 2 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 1 === Notify Header === Subscription address: http://subscription Producer address: http://producer Topic dialect: http://dialect Topic name: CME/CGFT/new == DISCLAIMER == COMESEP makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy and COMESEP specifically disclaims any liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content on the website, as well as the alerts that are sent out. Neither COMESEP nor any other party involved in creating, producing, or delivering information that is used in the COMESEP alert system is liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of your access to, or use of, or inability to use or access, the website and/or the alerts that are sent out. This file has been generated on 10-06-2014 19:49 by Comesep dispatcher at www.comesep.eu/alertLead Time: 112.58 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-06-10T19:49Z |
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